Why Did Shallman’s Attack Model Fail?

From Village To Village
by Paul Hatfield

The Shallman Model failed in the CD2 race.

Why? It had a pretty successful track record in recent elections.

The formula is conceptually simple:

Lots of Money + Big Endorsements + Creative Lies = Victory

It worked for Greuel’s run for Controller and Trunanich’s for City Attorney. Shallman had to feel comfortable managing the Essel-Greuel tag team against Krekorian. The sum for his candidate was at least twice that of Paul’s.

Here are a couple of points to consider:

* Both the City Attorney and Controller races were city wide affairs. The mass marketing approach of the Shallman model plays off of ignorance and apathy. Those characteristics are more commonplace when dealing with a larger population.

That’s no different than life insurance actuarial tables – the larger the base, the more reliable they are.

* There were significant qualitative factors as well. Nick Patsaouras did not enter the Controller’s race until late in the game, thus he had less time to raise money. It was virtually impossible for him to publicly challenge the gross lies leveled by Greuel.

Jack Weiss was a political cripple who was despised even by his own constituents.

Shallman, was playing with a stacked deck in those races.

What Shallman apparently did not consider in the CD2 campaign was how well informed the district’s voters were. He wasn’t up against a bunch of hicks at a local carnival in a game of three-card Monte.

It is difficult to sell lies to knowledgeable people. I guess Shallman learned marketing from the Nigerian e-mail boiler rooms.

Mr. Shallman is representing Janice Hahn in her bid for Lieutenant Governor. His model should fare better at that level.

Ms. Hahn should be ashamed at employing Shallman in the wake of the scurrilous tactics he used in the CD2 race. Something tells me she is not.